O'MalleyResearch

Module 01 · CEO turnover

Statistics

How share prices reacted to CEO changes, overall and by the kind of change: who took over, how the outgoing CEO left, and what else was announced at the same time.

Each figure is the average abnormal return: the stock's move beyond what its usual relationship with the market predicts. The sample is 2,507 genuine CEO changes at US-listed companies priced at least $1, with extreme moves capped at the 1st and 99th percentiles. Lines show 95% confidence intervals (the average ± 1.96 standard errors); groups of fewer than 20 events are greyed out. Sectors are grouped from SEC industry codes, and size is the public float reported in the last annual report before the announcement.

These describe what happened on average, not the effect of any one change, and groups overlap (an interim CEO is often appointed after an abrupt departure). Exploratory results; see the Methodology · updated 2026-10-29.

Window

2,505 events with a complete window

All genuine CEO changes

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
All events
−1.8%2,505 events

Who takes over

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Insider (current executive)
−1.8%1,076 events
Outside hire
+0.4%406 events
Interim CEO
−4.2%413 events
No successor named yet
−2.3%197 events
Founder or former CEO returns
−0.4%49 events

How the CEO left

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Retirement
−2.1%601 events
Resignation
−2.6%821 events
Terminated
−0.5%73 events
Health or death
−3.1%47 events

Planned or abrupt

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Planned
−1.5%1,555 events
Abrupt
−2.8%678 events

Signs the departure was forced

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Yes
−2.5%432 events
None stated
−1.6%2,073 events

Outgoing CEO stays as

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Chair
−1.4%477 events
Board member
−2.1%271 events
Adviser
−1.8%307 events
Leaves the company
−1.7%1,266 events

Other news in the same announcement

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Financial results
−4.8%310 events
Lower guidance
−12.7%24 events
Restructuring
−5.1%115 events
Merger or acquisition
−1.0%194 events
No other news
−1.6%1,906 events

Company size (public float)

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Micro (under $300m)
−1.1%983 events
Small ($300m–2bn)
−2.3%614 events
Mid ($2–10bn)
−2.5%443 events
Large (over $10bn)
−1.9%371 events
Unknown
−1.6%94 events

Sector

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
Consumer
−2.0%351 events
Energy
−1.8%60 events
Financials
−1.0%345 events
Healthcare
−1.5%511 events
Industrials and services
−1.5%451 events
Materials
−0.4%127 events
Media and telecoms
−2.8%47 events
Other
+0.1%51 events
Real estate
−1.4%91 events
Technology
−3.4%409 events
Utilities
−1.7%62 events

Year announced

Group
−15%−10%−5%0
Average
2021
−2.0%64 events
2022
−1.7%463 events
2023
−1.5%461 events
2024
−1.8%521 events
2025
−1.7%578 events
2026
−2.4%418 events

The average path

The typical stock's return minus the S&P 500's, added up from the day before the announcement, across 2,385 genuine CEO changes with prices on every day shown. The shaded band is the 95% confidence interval.

−6%−4%−2%0+2%−20−10Day 0+10+20+30+40+50+60Trading days before (−) and after (+) the announcement